The gathering wave of low pressure exited the African coast unusually strong for June, creating strong squalls that shipping in the eastern Atlantic tried to avoid.
Born of a belt of low pressure circling the Arrkarharan world and known as the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, the mere presence of yet another storm was insignificant within a region known for them.
This narrow belt, where the southern hemisphere and northern hemisphere trade winds merge, continually forced air westward, through a region with warm air close to the surface, and colder air aloft.
Stirred by the winds and fed by water temperatures in excess of 27°C, the lighter warm air rose, often rapidly, wringing out humidity as the air cooled. Severe thunderstorms were a daily fact of life in the ITCZ from the sustained conditions. Occasionally, the storms clustered.
On rare occasions, perhaps five to ten times a year, a wave or cluster of stormy weather emerging from the coast begins circulating around a common centre, creating a lower area of pressure within this centre.
If wind shear was light – the difference in wind speeds from lower altitude to higher altitude – and the storm cluster remained over warm water, it would grow rapidly, progressing through tropical storm to hurricane phase.
Such a cluster system departed the African coast on the day the team rescued Jahrae, the strong wave of pressure moving into an area of light shear, where water temperatures approached 32°C.
Forecasters warned shipping interests to avoid the area, predicting rapid development of tropical storm force winds, or wind speeds between 63 kph and 117 kph, in the area just to the south and west of the Cape Verde Islands.
Meteorologists aboard AISV llhaesa ahrella t’yaeli watched with growing interest, studying the Arrkarharan storm and contrasting it with historical and well-researched storm development on Arrhazon, extrapolating, analysing, and predicting.
By the end of the third day off-coast, the storm reached Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson 1-5 scale, receiving the name ‘Athena’ as its identifier. Moving west at 19 kph, it continued to strengthen, reaching close to category 4.
Encountering some shear on the fifth day, the storm weakened back to minimal hurricane strength, while picking up forward speed. By the end of its first week of existence, long-range forecasts predicted the storm would turn northwestward, north, and finally northeast, heading safely out to sea, away from the United States mainland.
Hlacaela Jorsahn, chief research meteorologist aboard the AISV, differed from Arrkarharan prognosticators, predicting a continued westward path for the storm, headlong into optimal conditions in the Caribbean. Beyond, its destination five days out was coastal Louisiana.
Jahrae brought this information to the President, but US forecasters disagreed with the Arrhazonan assessment, citing a lack of credibility due to their unfamiliarity with the Arrkarharan world.
Knowing she would not prevail, Jahrae bit her lip and disengaged from the advocacy, hoping that the United States forecasters would begin to see the error in their reasoning.
Hlacaela provided much of her data to the US researchers, and while they found it interesting to study the different modelling, they continued to downplay its predictive accuracy.
Jahrae sat with llhaesa at their lake home, enjoying a nice summer’s day, reading on their back deck. While llhaesa read fiction, Jahrae studied the information from disparate forecasters sharing their predictions on the atmospheric enigma named Athena.
“’Essa, you are the science whiz in the family, would you mind reviewing these two reports and render your opinion? I feel queasy over this, given the potential for disaster if the Arrkarharan forecasters are wrong.”
“Sure, I’ll look at it, but it might take a while to study in detail.”
Jahrae reached across the short wrought iron table between their lounge chairs, passing the electronic reader off to llhaesa, who jumped right in to review.
Remaining quiet while llhaesa studied, Jahrae disappeared inside, returning with two blue margaritas on the rocks, the wide brimmed glasses ringed with a white jagged edge of margarita salt.
“Ooh, thank you,” llhaesa graciously accepted the offering, while ready to deliver a quip. “Remind me to put in a good word for you with the staffing agency. You do good work.”
Jahrae stuck out her tongue at her partner, although she could not hide the smile that reformed after her tongue withdrew.
“Feeling playful now, are you? Have you finished reading the information?” Jahrae inquired.
“Yes, I did, J’har, and I must admit I am troubled. The Arrkarharan meteorologists do not have as much detailed information, and their predictions on steering currents are off significantly.
As a controlling evaluative, I went back and checked AISV predictions for the region since its arrival, comparing that information to actual results. The rate of accuracy is excellent.
I do not have that information for Arrkarharan predictions for the same time frame and location, but given what I know of the state of their technology, research, and results, it is nowhere near as accurate.
In my opinion, the United States would be wise to heed the AISV predictions.”
“Would you mind putting that into an email for Alicia?”
“I surely will. Do you wish to send it under your cover, or directly from me?”
“Send it along under your name; it matters not who sends the information.”
“J’har, if Alicia fails to heed the warning, this could prove a huge disaster in the making.
You saw the storm path, and while that is the major element, there are other events aligning that make it a potential calamity.
First is the location – just west of New Orleans, putting the northeast quadrant right over the city. The second issue is the time of landfall, predicted to be on the approach to high tide. Third, astronomical conditions make that time the highest natural tide within a six-month window.
Adding those tidal highs with 265 kph winds and low pressure and storm surge, the combination will produce high water the levies protecting the city cannot withstand. It isn’t even close.
I have a bad feeling about this, and this government has five days to get it right.”
“Alicia asked if we had capability to modify the weather,” Jahrae shared, knowing what llhaesa thought of this approach.
“Hurricanes exist for a reason. They take latent heat and dissipate it into the atmosphere. People messing with a hurricane engine, using artificial means to preclude that exchange without evacuation of the latent heat through other technology, is a recipe for long-term disaster.
There are natural conditions that prevent hurricane formation. These conditions spread the heat globally. Absent that natural alternative, with the water left to store more heat energy, nature will simply assemble a bigger storm, like a boiling pot given yet more heat.
In addition, it would begin seriously affecting sea life as the warmer water lost oxygen content.
I assume you told Alicia we did this at one time, and learned a valuable lesson that nature is not something to trifle with, unless we account for all down-event consequences.”
“I knew you would say that, and of course, we agree. Yet to those here, who know not the repercussions, it looks tempting, ‘essa.”
Llhaesa looked down at the electronic reader still in her hands, which was open to her secure Arrhazonan email account. “I have a response from Alicia already; that was quick.”
“What does she say?”
“I’ll read it to you.
‘Thank you for sharing your analysis and concerns. You know I value your judgement, as well as your high skills in so many things, including science.
Yet I walk a fine line here. If I go with what you say, the entire government forecasting team will be furious with me.
If they prove right, they would make this a huge issue, that I trusted you ahead of them. If you prove right, countless numbers of people will die.
In the end, the fact that you point out with detail the flaws in their logic, the information that is missing from their calculations of path and intensity, leads me to believe yours is the stronger viewpoint.
FEMA tells me we need three days to evacuate the area. That buys me just a little time to work and overcome objections within our government.
I may need your assistance, along with Jahrae and that teen dynamo of yours. Hang tight, I will be back to you tomorrow.’
Thoughts, J’har?”
“It sounds like we make headway. I knew you could sway her; you could do the science on a level far beyond me.”
“Yes, but you have your strengths, my dear.
I have to laugh reading her reference to Addison, such an impression that one makes.”
“Indeed, that is especially true of the other person out with her sailing with her today.”
“Yes, well, she is impressed with Addie, and Addie is impressed with her. I know two other people like that, J’har.”
“Yes; Ronnie and Elsrensia.”
“Besides them.”
“My parents, Jesn and Chsen, or M’traliel and Khahishra?”
“Nope; try again.”
“I give up.”
“Ooh, none for you tonight, no, no, no.” llhaesa teased, wagging an index finger at her wife.
Jahrae jumped off her lounge chair and pounced square upon her wife’s lap. Llhaesa called out “oomph!” as Jahrae landed. Before she could say anything, Jahrae wrapped her arms around llhaesa, batting her eyelashes suggestively.
“None for me, tonight; really?” she asked.
“Make that tomorrow night.”
“Suppose I sit on your lap tomorrow and bat my eyelashes at you one more time; what then?”
“I will move it back another day. Meanwhile, my wifely eye candy, I see our young sailors returning to homeport. Perhaps you should consider prim and proper behaviour in front of two impressionable and receptive young minds.”
“Is this the same person who said we would never again question Addie being an adult?”
“Um, yes… I guess that argument is no longer useful. How about this…you’re squishing me!”
“Perhaps I should bounce a bit.” Jahrae wiggled and gyrated about as llhaesa audibly exaggerated the impact. “Ah-aah-aah-aah-aah-aah,” llhaesa called out in a continual, singsong fashion.
“I will remember this, J’har; plan on finding me in your lap, soon.”
“Promises, promises, ‘essa. I hope that will be tonight.”
Addison and Jahlaera walked across the lawn and up onto the deck, approaching the playful couple. Both were clad in two-piece bathing suits after having spent several hours on the lake.
“Saved by Addie! Hello, dear daughter,” llhaesa called out in greeting.
“How have I saved you, mum ‘essa?” Addie wondered.
“Your mum J’har sits here trying to seduce me. You are here to rescue me from my fate, are you not?”
“Um, no, not so much; we are here as we are done sailing and we wished to nap a bit.”
“No fair! Please help your mum out!”
“All right, I’ll help,” promised Addie, promptly sitting upon Jahrae’s lap – while she was still on llhaesa.
Jahrae laughed at Addie’s unexpected ploy, even though as with llhaesa, Addie was taller and heavier.
Addie bounced back off, giving Jahrae a high five as she returned to standing. “What have you parental units been doing, aside from lazing around in the sun and shade?”
Jahrae explained their concern over the hurricane, the concern transferred to Jahlaera as she listened.
“Jahrae, I am tasked to meteorology on the AISV, although not that weather system. I have seen their projections, read them out of curiosity, and Hlacaela is peerless in tropical cyclone research. This world ignores her at its peril.”
“Do you think President Ellenwood will act, mum?” Addie wondered.
“I am optimistic. I just hope the weather service will understand what we are saying and not let ego get in the way.
Addie, we may need to act in the coming days. There are elderly people that cannot get out. I intend to ask Alicia if she will permit us to assist.”
“How do you mean, mum?”
“We have 17 craft like Chekresu. While we can only carry a dozen to fifteen people per vehicle, we can get in and out quickly, in minutes. I intend to ask if we can use all 17 to move people.”
“And each of those craft has another smaller one like Baby Bay; those can carry 7. Mum, I can pilot one of those, so too Jahlaera.”
“I may well put both of you to work flying those small crafts. You both are part of the team. If Alicia gives approval, I will order the craft down here to assist.”
“What about animals?” Addie wondered, this an important issue for her.
“Animals come out, Addie. We aren’t leaving dogs and kitties behind to die.”
Addison smiled, but then she knew Jahrae would likely take this stand. Theirs was a family that loved animals.
“By the way, where is Pegasus?” Jahrae wondered.
“He is still sleeping on the boat, I didn’t wish to disturb him; he looked so cute.”
“Addie, go down and get him, please. I know he can come off the boat on his own, but I prefer to know he is all right,” llhaesa requested.
Addison saw llhaesa’s point and returned to Musical Diplomat to retrieve their Newfoundland, who as Addie suspected, slept happily in the boat’s cubby.
Walking back to the home, her thoughts returned to the animals that might face the brunt of the coming storm, and she silently prayed for them to find save haven.
Addison prayed every day for the people, for the animals, and for the right decision.
Alicia’s two-day window ended with her having to make a call. At that point, the government’s team conceded the conditions shifted, taking the storm further west than anticipated.
This realignment followed the Arrhazonan predicted model perfectly, yet the government team stubbornly persisted in claiming the Arrhazonan methodology faulty, that the storm would turn northeast.
What they failed to give much weight to was the Arrhazonan team’s similar prediction of a northeast turn – except their model had this turn after landfall, too late to save the city.
The President made the call, and she accepted the Arrhazonan model as the one she would heed, ordering the evacuation of New Orleans with three days to go. She ordered prices frozen within five hundred miles of New Orleans, this to prevent price gouging and profiteering.
Alicia ordered the US Army to oversee the mandatory evacuation, and she consented to Arrhazonan involvement in the effort, allowing Jahrae to commit the full complement of craft to the task.
A curfew went into effect that first night, covering the entire evacuation zone, excepting for departing evacuees. Advanced Arrhazonan technology helped guide the various evacuation teams to those resisting leaving, who planned to ride out the storm.
There were reports of refusals to bring pets, but a second order went out from the President, clearly stating all pets were to come out with their owners.
By the end of day two, the city and surrounding areas were clear of people. Government forecasters conceded the Arrhazonan model was in fact flawless to that point, providing accuracy to over 99%, over the life of the storm, now almost two weeks.
Now located in the southern Gulf of Mexico, Athena moved through an eyewall cycling, with a second eyewall forming while the first dissipated. This temporarily weakened the storm, but it was part of the predictive analysis. The timing was horribly wrong, allowing the storm time to shed a weakening eyewall system and replace it with a new and stronger one.
As if guided, the storm moved through the Caribbean, missing the island of Jamaica, passing to its south. It moved through and past the Yucatán Strait without striking Cuba or Mexico, thus maintaining its strength as it turned toward the north-northwest.
Athena moved forward at 24 kph, and with 575 kilometres to landfall, the storm was right on predicted path and time.
AISV llhaesa ahrella t’yaeli began feeding live data from the storm, eliminating the need for risky hurricane hunter flights. Over the next six hours, again as predicted, the storm moved closer to the 265 kph winds initially predicted.
When the debate over which forecast to believe raged, Third Gulf Oil & Gas chose to go with the Arrkarharan information, and in a matter of a major management communications breakdown, as well as a matter for future investigation, those in charge did not realise until too late that their crew on TGOG-72 Platform failed to evacuate.
No one passed word to the right channels on acceptance of the Arrhazonan predictive model. A crew of 212 were on the platform, directly in the path of the northeast quadrant of the storm – its strongest field.
Jahrae, llhaesa, Addie, and Serry watched news of the approaching storm, their screen split between Arrkarharan and Arrhazonan feeds. As they sat engrossed, Jahrae’s mobile rang off, the screen identifying the caller as Alicia Ellenwood, President.
“Hello, Alicia,” Jahrae called out in greeting.
“I am sorry to disturb you, J’har, but some fucking arse hole moron for TGOG failed to see to it their crew on a particular oil rig platform were evacuated. There are over 200 on there, directly in the path of the northeast quadrant.”
“You sound quite happy,” Jahrae observed.
“Oh, quite. There will be hell to pay when this is over, count on it. J’har, we need help from you and your Arrhazonan team.”
“You’ve got it. We are on our way, Alicia. We will get them off the rig safely.”
Jahrae ended the call, even as her family stirred to action. “Addie, can you get Serry over to mum Ro-”
“Mum, I wish to go,” was Addie’s instant objection.
“Addison, if you had let me finish, please take Serry over there, and hurry back; we need you with us.”
